The Hoyas are already struggling on the road (4-6 SU), and now they’re dealing with a massive availability hit: leading scorer KJ Lewis is out for the season after an ankle injury. That’s the kind of loss that shows up most on the road, where role players are asked to create offense against noise, pressure, and tougher shot quality. Not having Lewis there to steady the ship is a huge concern.

Xavier’s edge is the environment. They’ve dominated this series, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings against Georgetown. At home, they have only lost once in recent memory to the Hoyas. The price speaks into this as the oddsmakers are comfortable making Xavier the clear side even though both teams’ records look similar on paper and this is a spread that can be covered without a blowout: Xavier simply needs to win the empty possession battle. Georgetown without its primary scorer is more likely to hit drought pockets, and those sequences are exactly how a lead can be extended to double digits. Lay the short number with the home team that’s healthier, more stable, and historically comfortable in this matchup.