Through three games of this Western Conference first-round series, elite defensive execution has taken center stage, grinding contests into grueling half-court rock fights. With neither the Los Angeles Clippers nor Dallas Mavericks able to establish sustainable offensive rhythm, the Under 208.5 total points looks extremely enticing in Game 4.

The numbers illustrate just how much defense has dominated – the teams have combined for totals of 194, 189, and 191 points over the first three games. Those puny outputs are staggering considering the immense offensive talent, led by stars Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. However, the length, physicality and discipline of both defenses has made scoring efficiently a monumental task.

Leonard’s potential absence due to a nagging knee injury could be the catalyst cementing another grind-it-out, defense-first affair. If he sits or is limited, the Clippers lose their primary shot creator, likely forcing an over-reliance on an ice-cold George against Dallas’ swarming team defense. On the other end, Doncic has been uncharacteristically frustrated by the Clippers’ physicality. With neither team gaining an advantage, expecting a free-flowing, high-scoring Game 4 seems ill-advised.

Bank on another defensive grind where both teams struggle to crack 100 points. In a series defined by two elite defenses taking a no-layups mentality, the Under 208.5 points is simply the smart play.