The Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox begin a series on Monday. The Reds have been playing good baseball lately, winning 6 of their last 7 series. The Red Sox have been a mess since the Devers trade, and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games, usually struggling to score. Yet the Sox come into Monday’s game as heavy favorites, almost certainly because of the pitching matchup. I am not going to pay the freight to back a shaky Red Sox team, but I also don’t want to bet the Reds against Garrett Crochet. I think the best play is the game total under 7.5.

Crochet would likely be the Cy Young frontrunner in a world without Tarik Skubal. Crochet has basically not had a bad start all season, and he has given up 1 run or less in 11 of his 17 starts. He has been a strikeout machine in the process too. I except the young Reds lineup to struggle tonight against him. Cincinnati will turn to rookie Chase Burns, who had an impressive debut last week. Burns was limited to 5 innings and 81 pitches, but he managed to fan 8 in that limited timeframe. Both lineups are in the bottom third of the league in team strikeouts, so we should see a lot of people walking back to the dugout tonight. If the bullpens can keep things under control late, I expect this game to stay under the total, thanks to two power pitchers.