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NCAAB 02/10 7:00 PM North Carolina vs Clemson |
Pick: North Carolina +5.5 Analysis: The Tar Heels are still in the thick of things, but they need to string together some wins. They beat Pitt on Saturday after losing to them the week before, and the story of the Tar Heels’ season has just been inconsistency. I think this spot screams both “urgency” for UNC and “letdown spot” for Clemson. My North Carolina vs Clemson pick is UNC to cover +5.5. We have 2 different styles at play here. The Tar Heels are a go-fast team, while Clemson is more methodical. Both teams are in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, though, and aside from tempo, they grade out very similarly in most major metrics. It is interesting to note that both KenPom and Torvik have both teams inside the top 50, and that is important to note in particular with respect to the Heels. This team has a ton of talent, including multiple future NBA players, but something is just missing. The metrics love them, but they keep losing for some reason. They will probably lose again at Clemson too, but I don’t see a lot of reason to think they will get blown away. If the game goes the way Carolina wants, it will be fast, and UNC could win it. If the game goes the way Clemson wants, it will be slow and methodical, and covering is more of a challenge. Either way, I like the chances of the Tar Heels at least covering this one. And don’t underestimate the post-Duke letdown spot here for the Tigers. Give me the Heels. |